SURVIVING AND THRIVING DURING CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

February 2, 2009 by thelyonsden
Guest Post by Kim Butler
Is there anything of which it may be said, “See, this is new?”
It has already been in ancient times before us. –Ecclesiastes 1:10Financial crisis is nothing new. Nor, is change.

Have you ever accumulated so much “stuff” and that before you knew it, the garage got so full of junk that you couldn’t even park your car in there?!?

If you’re willing to look at things from a different perspective, our current economic situation is no different; we’ve accumulated old ways of thinking and acting. Now, it’s time to clear out the old to make room for the new.

Along these lines, this month’s Prosperity On Purpose presents actions, for the short- and long-term, that you can take in response to the current “crisis.”
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Short-term & long-term financial responses to the current “crisis”

LISTEN: Creative Destruction [mp3 audio] (27:30)
http://www.partners4prosperity.com/ezine/POP-CreativeDestruction-0901-final.mp3READ: 3,638 words (Just over 15 minutes to read)

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The consensus of the mainstream financial media is that times are tough, things are bad, and the future is bleak. And the adjective that most often precedes this pessimistic perspective? “Unprecedented.”

That’s one way to look at it. But it’s not the only way.

Financial crises are not new. Since the United States was established, its people have experienced at least 17 Panics, Crises, Recessions and Depressions (see list below). And while it may take some time, things get better; historically, every downturn has ended with a recovery. And often what arises out of the crisis is better than what was before. In fact, economists have a name for this process of crisis and recovery. They call it creative destruction.

Creative Destruction
Creative destruction is a term coined by Joseph Schumpeter in his 1942 treatise titled “Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy” as a way to describe how new businesses and technologies replace older, less efficient ones. It was Schumpeter’s observation that the “process of creative destruction is the essential fact about capitalism.”

When old technologies and business models are diminished because of creative destruction, there can be significant economic distress for portions of the population. Carriage makers lost their livelihoods when Henry Ford began mass-producing Model T’s. Main-frame computer companies were made irrelevant by Microsoft, Intel and the personal computer. And in a what-goes-around-comes-around irony, the American auto companies may shortly find themselves victims of creative destruction. For those directly affected by these realities, the impact can be financially brutal.

But for the economy as a whole, creative destruction is usually beneficial because it allows resources to be transferred out of older, less efficient industries and into newer, more efficient ones which produce improved and/or less expensive goods and services. If understood and managed properly, creative destruction can be a catalyst to more productivity, higher incomes and better standards of living.

When the prevailing psychological environment is pessimistic, it’s easy to forget that what’s being experienced right now is nothing new. With this understanding of crises and creative destruction, individuals should be focused on how to ride out the tough times and be prepared for the opportunities that inevitably follow. Many of the details will depend on your unique circumstances, but there are some financial fundamentals that apply. The key is acting on what has proven to be productive, rather than worrying about what might happen if you do nothing.

So, what can you do?

1. Manage your debt.
Convinced (or deluded) that their homes and stock portfolios would continue to appreciate, a lot of Americans stopped saving and kept spending; for the past two years, the country’s savings rate has been negative.* But the housing market turned sour in 2007 and the stock market plummeted in 2008. In this current financial environment, the biggest challenge for many Americans is finding a way to continue paying for the debt they have accumulated – and finding a way to stop adding more debt to the pile.

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The easiest way to manage debt is not to have any. While that comment might sound smart-alecky, this was a prevailing point of view for many Americans that came out of the Great Depression. With the possible exception of a mortgage, many individuals either paid cash or did without. From a personal finance standpoint, living debt-free certainly has advantages, and many households would benefit from making it a financial priority to be debt-free. If your spending is out of control, it may be time to cut up the credit cards or have an intervention to get things under control.

Practically speaking, most people challenged by debt can’t simply sell their house, or tap into savings to pay things off and start over. And they might not be able to stop borrowing either, at least in the short-term. (If you don’t have the cash for a car, living without one might severely restrict your employment opportunities.) But people who don’t find ways to manage their debt will have a tough time surviving the downturn – and are less likely to participate in the recovery that follows.

What is manageable debt? Two Rules

Debt is manageable when the cost to service it doesn’t impact your ability to save consistently and substantially. If your income is $10,000 a month, you pay all your monthly obligations, and find it easy to save $2,000 each month, you could make a strong argument that your debt is manageable. On the other hand, if your mortgage, home equity line, auto loan and credit card payments make it impossible to save, your debt is managing you.

From another perspective, debt is manageable if whatever you owe is less than what you own. If your total outstanding debt is $300,000 including your mortgage, and your total assets are $3 million, your debt is probably manageable – provided you could liquidate some of your assets to pay the debt.

And this is where it gets tricky. Illiquid assets count on a balance sheet, but many times turning them into cash would cause major financial disruption. You could sell your business to clear your debt, but then what will you do to earn money in the future? You could sell your home (probably at a discount), but where will you live? Thus, a better way to define manageable debt is if your liquid assets are greater than what you owe.

Should you refinance? Two Reasons

From a debt management perspective, there are two objectives to refinancing. One is to secure a lower interest rate. The other is to lower your monthly payments. Particularly if you have good credit, now might be an opportune time to refinance some of your debt.

While lending standards have tightened, interest rates are historically low, particularly for home mortgages. Credit card companies are still looking for good customers – the ones that have a balance, but pay their bills – so it may be beneficial to transfer balances to a new institution.

Even if you can handle your current monthly payments, there may be value in extending your debt over a longer period of time, especially if the lower payments would help you save money. Changing from a 15-year mortgage to 30 years might seem counter-intuitive if the goal is to reduce debt. But consider the possible advantages: A lower monthly payment will be easier to handle. If the difference is saved, you are building a reserve to cushion against unexpected future challenges – thus keeping you from borrowing more or going broke. If not needed, the reserve can be applied against the outstanding balance to pay off the mortgage early, if you want to.

Should you consider borrowing more? Two Scenarios

Even though the primary focus of debt management for most individuals is debt reduction, there may be reasons to borrow more, depending on your personal circumstances and the reason for doing it.

If borrowing will allow you to acquire income-producing assets, it may be worth taking on the debt. Typical scenarios might be borrowing to acquire income-producing real estate, or ownership of a business. But it also might be student loans to pay for higher education if the end result will be greater earnings potential. Every situation must be evaluated in light of your individual circumstances, but if the anticipated return will exceed the cost of borrowing, there is merit in the idea.

Sometimes the cost of borrowing someone else’s money is less than the return you’re earning on your own money. If you have liquid assets delivering a 7% annual return, and can borrow at 5%, the math says borrowing is to your advantage. The only caveat: Don’t borrow to gratify consumption desires. Borrowing to buy an automobile when you have the cash? Okay. Wrestle with your own conscience and deal with the rationalization. The basic principle is “borrow to acquire assets, and don’t borrow for amusement or lifestyle ‘upgrades.’

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Discovery Questions for Step 1:

  • Is your debt manageable?
  • Should you consider refinancing?
  • Are there good reasons to borrow more?
  • Who can help you with these decisions?

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2. Build Cash Reserves
When the economy was rolling and markets were booming, out-sized returns led to overconfidence. People got used to operating on skinny financial margins because they found they could spend more, save less, and still come out ahead. Substantial cash reserves were viewed as unnecessary or foolish. Oops.

Building cash reserves may not have the sex appeal of some other accumulation strategies, but building and maintaining a financial cushion is an essential component for responding to times of creative destruction. Cash reserves help you ride out the storm and give you resources for new opportunities that will follow.

What Constitutes Cash Reserves?
Cash reserves don’t have to be kept in a shoebox or deposited to a bank savings account earning 1% interest – there are other choices. But those other options should include the features of a shoebox or a bank.

First, the money should be liquid – i.e., accessible without penalty from either the institution or the IRS. Surrender charges and tax costs can be a deterrent to taking the money, and you don’t want to be torn between taking the money and taking a hit.

In most situations, liquidity doesn’t mean you must have instant access, like you might at a bank. Receiving funds within five business days is usually soon enough. In fact, a short waiting period might keep you from acting impulsively. The key is the right to liquidate some or all of the account on demand.

Second, the value should be stable, and preferably guaranteed. You want some assurance that $5,000 in the account today will be worth $5,000 (or more) tomorrow, next week, next month, next year. This insistence on stability and guarantees can seem foolish when others brag of earning double-digit returns in some non-secure financial product. But a lot of those braggarts have seen their financial safety net unravel as 15% annual returns have been wiped out by 40 and 50% losses over the past two years.

Traditionally, life insurance cash values have served very well as long-term cash reserves. Once a whole life policy has been in place for four or five years, the cash value accumulation can be substantial – and the interest and guarantees are usually competitive with other conservative alternatives.

How Much Should You Be Saving?
How soon do you want to achieve financial stability? Obviously, the more you save, the faster your cash reserves will pile up. But saving more also usually means learning how to spend less as well. In other words, not only do you have more in reserve, but it costs less to maintain your lifestyle.

Just for your own reference, ask some dedicated savers about the percentage of earnings they allocate to saving. Don’t be surprised if the numbers start around 15-20% – and some will be over 50%.

One of the ripple effects of the recent decline in stock market values has been the hue and cry from financial experts that the biggest retirement challenge for most Americans is getting them to save enough money. Where some planning programs might have calculated a successful retirement could be achieved by regularly saving 10% of income and regularly earning 10% on the savings, the numbers have changed. Now, saving 20% is the “new 10%” – this is the minimum amount that must be saved – because a 5% annual return has become the other “new 10%.”

But regardless of what’s going on in the larger economy, you can’t go wrong by saving substantial portions of your earnings.

When Should You Use Your Cash Reserves?
When you have to, and when you can acquire more assets.

One of the casualties of the current creative destruction is lifetime employment security. Nobody graduates from high school or college and settles into a 40-year career with one employer. Fewer employers offer pensions, and many employees won’t stay long enough to be vested anyway. In some cases, there isn’t even severance pay. All this means a greater likelihood of income interruptions – there are going to be periods before retirement when you are going to need savings to pay the bills – with no resources except what you’ve accumulated on your own.

Of course, even in this new employment environment, things may go well. If that’s the case, consistent saving could result in a significant cash reserve. If so, this “extra” accumulation may be turned to new financial opportunities – without jeopardizing your financial stability. It’s hard to say what those opportunities might be, but as John McCormack noted in his book, Self-Made in America, “people with money in reserve seem to attract more money from outside sources.”

One caution: If you accumulate large cash reserves, prepare to make some decisions about when you should spend the money on personal pleasures – vacations, shopping trips, etc. Money is a medium of exchange, and only reveals its value when it is used to buy something. Saving money for emergencies and opportunities is prudent and productive; hoarding money isn’t. Sometimes there is great value in spending the money, indulging yourself or someone else. After all, you can’t take it with you. But the best spending usually comes from a plan – i.e., “when we have $20,000 accumulated, we can feel free to spend $2,000.”

It might seem odd to think about making spending rules in the middle of a financial crisis, but remember: there’s a recovery following a crisis. And if you’ve been diligent about building your cash reserves, there’s going to be opportunities, both to prosper and enjoy it.

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Discovery Questions for Step 2:

  • How large are your cash reserves?
  • Are they liquid and safe?
  • Should you find ways to save more?
  • Who can help you with these decisions?

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3. Get Your Own Insurance – and Don’t Cut Corners
Having employers provide health insurance was a business practice that arose out of government restrictions on wage increases during World War II. Employers couldn’t increase pay to attract new or better employees, but the government allowed a tax advantage for insurance benefits if they were paid by the employer. This was the beginning of employee benefits, and they have represented a significant financial perk for many Americans. A chart from the December 13, 2008 Lansing State Journal, showed the average wage for a U.S. autoworker today is $29/hr. When additional, non-wage benefits are added, the number grows to $79/hr.

As mentioned in the previous section, the concept of lifetime employment is part of the past for most people – it has been “creatively destroyed.” It’s the same with the benefits associated with lifetime employment. Defined-benefit pensions, group health plans, short- and long-term disability coverage, and term life insurance equal to a multiple of your salary are no longer the norm. Even if you’re still getting a weekly paycheck or monthly salary, you must think like you are self-employed. That means you will be responsible for providing your own “employee benefits.”

What’s the big deal about insurance?
You might not think maintaining an insurance program is a fundamental action for surviving creative destruction. But individuals are most vulnerable to financial disaster during times of economic upheaval. If you’re already living on the financial edge because a spouse has lost a job, it doesn’t take much for an accident or some other unexpected event to push you over. Insurance is all about minimizing those risks. In order to thrive in the coming recovery, you must first survive, and insurance is a financial survival tool.

But there’s another factor: When other people have less insurance, your personal financial risk increases.

Think of it this way: Suppose there are 1,000 homeowners in a community. They all face a risk of fire. Statistically, actuaries know that one home will be damaged by fire each year, and the damages will typically be $5,000. Setting aside the administrative costs and other business issues, a simple insurance plan might call for each homeowner to pay $5 a year in insurance to cover the anticipated loss. But what if 400 homeowners decide not to participate in the insurance plan? Now the premium for the 600 participants in the plan must be adjusted. Instead of $5/yr., the premium is $8.33/yr. In real life, the cost of the uninsured is factored into all insurance.

Here’s a real-life example: A December 17, 2008 Wall Street Journal article reported a significant increase in lapsed auto insurance since the beginning of the financial crisis (nationally, it is estimated that nearly one in six drivers is uninsured – in some states, the ratio is one in four).

One of the ways to protect against being damaged by an uninsured driver who can’t pay for damages he/she might incur is to add Uninsured-Underinsured Motorist protection to your policy. This protection means that you can receive money for medical bills, lost wages and other damages even if the other driver has no insurance. This feature adds approximately 7 to 9% to the cost of your coverage (about 20 states already require drivers to have this feature).

But if you don’t have Uninsured-Underinsured coverage in your auto coverage, what happens when you are involved in an accident with an uninsured driver? The WSJ article notes “you may have to sue to recover costs, and many uninsured motorists have few assets.” You will shell out more money for legal fees, and be less likely to receive any compensation.

Why the emphasis on not cutting corners?
As recent events illustrate, the best-laid plans sometimes fail – and the losses can be much worse than anticipated. The reason for insurance is to protect against situations that are worse than anticipated. An insurance program that is based on “perfect-world” scenarios isn’t really insurance.

For the last 30 years, many mainstream financial experts have endorsed a buy-term-invest-the-difference approach to life insurance. The BTID strategy calls for purchasing low-cost term life insurance, usually for a period of 20 years, as opposed to paying the higher premiums associated with permanent life insurance such as whole life. To replace the cash value component of whole life insurance, the difference between the premiums is invested in an alternate savings vehicle (the typical recommendation is mutual funds). In theory, the alternate savings vehicle will deliver a larger accumulation than the cash value in a whole life policy. The theory is that this return will be so much larger, that life insurance will no longer be needed.

Can you see the perfect-world mentality driving this strategy?

In turbulent times, here’s how BTID can unravel: The good thing about term life insurance is the relatively low cost to acquire the coverage. The bad thing is the high cost of keeping it after the initial term expires. If you reach the end of the term (10 years, 20 years, etc.) and still want life insurance, you will quite likely find the renewal premiums prohibitively expensive. The pricing structure of term life insurance is such that very few people will be able to maintain the coverage. (An oft-cited industry statistic: less than 1% of term insurance policies issued result in the payment of a death claim.)

Suppose you reach the end of the 20-year term period and find the alternative accumulation vehicles have not delivered their anticipated returns. Or suppose the gains have been greatly diminished by losses in the past few years (that could happen, right?). Here’s the dilemma: There’s not enough money accumulated to replace the life insurance, and you can’t afford to keep it.

This doesn’t mean you can’t do some restructuring of some of your insurance by changing deductibles, elimination periods or other modifications that allow you to shift some of the risk to your cash reserves, instead of the insurance company.

But your insurance choices must reflect your real financial risks, not just the ones you’d like to address. Some people like to dismiss their risk of disability by declaring “Hey, if I’m disabled, I’ll find a way to keep working.” That’s noble and well-intentioned, but when you’re disabled, you can’t work! You don’t get to define what a disability is going to be like, and you don’t get to choose which unforeseen events you will encounter.

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Discovery Questions for Step 3:

  • Are you properly insured?
  • Who can help you with these decisions?

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WHO CAN HELP YOU WITH ALL THESE DECISIONS?
If you understand the history of economic downturns and creative destruction, it should be apparent that great opportunities may arise from times such as these. While much of the responsibility for future success lies with the individual, the challenge is easier when like-minded people work together. In your efforts to rise above today’s circumstances, don’t neglect the assistance of trusted friends, business associates and especially financial professionals that think from a prosperous mindset.
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Posted in Business, Financial Services, Real Estate | 1 Comment »

Observations on a “Rollercoaster” Year

January 1, 2009 by thelyonsden

Happy New Year!

The following is a guest post by Kim Butler of Partners For Prosperity

“The ignorant will not in general defer to the opinion of the informed.” – Economist Frank Knight, 1921

For the majority of Americans, 2008 has been a wild financial ride, one that has run mostly downhill. As one year comes to a close, and another one begins, it’s worth pondering what we’ve learned. Here are three items to consider.

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LISTEN: Observations on a “Rollercoaster” Year [mp3 audio] (15:04)

READ: 1,891 words (About 8 minutes to read)
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“All I can say is, beware of geeks…bearing formulas.”  – Warren Buffet

In 1921, University of Chicago economist Frank Knight made a famous distinction between risk and uncertainty. Knight said risk was characterized by randomness with knowable probabilities, while uncertainty was randomness with unknowable probabilities.

According to Knight, in risky situations we don’t know the specific outcome, but we do know what the overall distribution of outcomes looks like. For example, we don’t know which number will result from rolling two dice in a craps game, but we do know the possibilities and probabilities: The possible combinations range between 2 and 12, with 2, 3, 11 and 12 the least likely combinations, while 7 occurs most often. Actuaries, through their detailed analysis of large amounts of data, can make similar risk calculations of the likelihood of having an accident, becoming disabled or dying. Actuaries don’t know who will experience these events, but they have a good idea how many people will. Applied to economics, one of the characteristics of financial risk is that there is some method to insure against it.

In contrast, economic uncertainty has no known range of outcomes, so you can’t limit possible damage through preventive measures. So while history may reveal why something happened (like the Great Depression or the tech bubble), it doesn’t provide any certainty that what happened before will happen again – even though there may appear to be some repeatable patterns. This is especially true when a particular issue is influenced by multiple variables. You can’t tell which variable will have the greatest impact, and thus determine the course of events.

However, because many random, uncertain events seem to have patterns, people keep trying to find ways to change uncertainties into knowable risks. They develop formulas for profiting in the stock market, predicting elections, selling products, finding a spouse, etc. Now that computers can process infinite amounts of information, there is an accompanying belief that almost every activity can be quantified and predicted. But recent events would indicate this belief is wrong. Economic uncertainties cannot be changed to knowable risks.

One of the first “domino factors” that served as a catalyst for the recent meltdown in the financial markets was the credit-default swap (CDS). A CDS is a private contract similar to an insurance contract designed to pay investors when a bond or company defaults. CDSs, often purchased by investors for speculation, hedging, and arbitrage, are described in an October 31, 2008 Wall Street Journal article as “devilish complicated deals.”

But several large financial firms believed brokering CDSs could be an extremely lucrative business, provided they could accurately define the risk. To that end, these companies hired some of the brightest economic talent to devise computer models to determine which CDSs were good bets. For almost a decade, the formula seemed golden.

Unfortunately, not all of the potential problems with CDSs were taken into consideration by the computer models.

According to the WSJ article, the companies “didn’t anticipate how market forces and contract terms not weighed by the models would turn the swaps, over the short term, into huge financial liabilities.” As a result, many of these once-stalwart financial institutions have been brought to ruin.

The ability to process large volumes of information in complex ways may provide new financial insights about what happens, and why. But it is dangerous to believe that uncertain financial opportunities can become manageable risks just because there is more information available. When there are too many factors that can impact the outcome, the end result is still uncertainty.

For Americans who bought the hype of “new formulas” for wealth and accumulation, the past year has been a wake-up call. Uncertainty – and the possibility of losing it all – is still an unfortunate financial fact of life.

Things can change quickly – for better or for worse.

The average price of gasoline in the United States was over $4.10/gallon on July 4, 2008. By November 17, 2008, the price had fallen to $1.85/gallon (see graph below). That’s a decline of almost 60% – in less than five months! By late November, some areas reported prices below $1.40/gallon, a price level lower than the late 1970s.

Be honest: After this summer, did you ever think gas would be less than $1.50/gallon? Did you ever think the drop in price would happen this fast?

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Fluctuation of Gasoline Prices

On October 9, 2007, the S & P 500 index reached its all-time high of 1565. Just less than a year later, on October 1, 2008, the index stood at 1161, a decline of 26%. From October 1, 2008 to November 24, 2008 – just 55 days – the index fell another 26% to 851. The total decline from the October 2007 peak: 45%.

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The values for several individual stocks have dropped even more – a 90% drop in share value has not been unusual, and some of the biggest names have fallen the hardest.

For the Baby Boom generation, the oft-repeated media mantra for the stock market has been: “Buy and hold. Look at the long-term perspective.” Thus, as the market began its downward slide through early 2008, many pundits congratulated the behavior of small investors who stayed the course, even as losses reached 25%. After all, they said, it is not unusual for the stock market to fluctuate on a yearly basis.

However, it is historically atypical for the fluctuation to be so large, especially downward. When the steady 10-month slide finished with a steep drop in less than two months, the descent came so quickly many didn’t have time to respond, or even know if they should. Conditioned to stay in the market, many now feel they have no choice but to stay in, hoping that a new upward trend will quickly recover the losses.

Most good financial decisions are predicated on taking long-term perspectives as opposed to constantly changing plans in response to each daily turn of events. You don’t refinance your mortgage every time interest rates drop, you don’t trade in the SUV for a fuel-efficient sedan when gas prices move up a few cents, and you don’t buy or sell a home based on the price your neighbors paid (or received) last week for their home. Big decisions made in haste usually turn out poorly.

But since circumstances can sometimes change quickly, it is prudent to have an idea of how you might want to respond. For example, some investors give themselves pre-determined limits. If an investment rises to a certain level, they sell and secure the gain; if it drops, they sell and stop the loss. Being aware of dramatic changes – and having a contingency plan for them – may not only minimize losses, but also open the door to financial opportunities as well.

The mixed economy is not a controlled economy

The phrase mixed economy describes an economy in which both public and private enterprises participate in the production and supply of goods and services. Typically, a mixed economy is one that combines elements of capitalism and socialism, of free enterprise and government regulation, of privately owned and centralized, government-run businesses. Given this definition, almost all countries from Cuba to the United States have mixed economies; the difference is the proportion of private or public influence.

In the United States, one of the rationales for government involvement in the economy is that it promotes the public good.

* The Federal Reserve System exists to provide a stable and standardized money supply.

* The missions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are to make home ownership possible for a wider range of citizens.

* The Interstate Highway system facilitates commerce and national defense.

Another rationale for government involvement is that it can act as a stabilizing force against the excesses and fluctuations inherent in capitalism. Free-market competition not only produces great wealth and prosperity, but it also drives less productive businesses out of the market, and this “creative destruction” catches some people and businesses financially unprepared to cope with the changes. In consideration of the public good, the government may step in by protecting pensions, extending bailouts, increasing the money supply, providing subsidies, lowering interest rates, etc.

In theory, these government measures are meant to harness the positive benefits of capitalism and minimize the negative aspects of free-market change, providing greater opportunity in good times and a “soft landing” for the economy in downturns.
In practice, governmental involvement can also distort productive activity and incur unintended consequences. And in some cases, whatever is happening in the private marketplace will override any governmental intervention, no matter how well-intentioned.

During the Great Depression, unprecedented steps were taken by the U.S. government in an attempt to right an economy staggered by the stock market crash of 1929. The Roosevelt administration created massive public works projects, reorganized the financial system, provided an extensive welfare security net – yet the economy remained mired in a depression that didn’t let go until the country entered World War II. While government intervention could influence free market activity, it couldn’t control it.

It is impossible to tell whether today’s economic situation will rival the Great Depression. But it is almost certain that any government involvement will have the same impact as it did 70 years ago. Contrary to the claims of earnest, well-meaning politicians, no amount of financial assistance/bailout or government oversight will be able to guarantee a stable and prosperous economy. Centrally controlled communist governments of the late 20th century attempted to regulate all aspects of their economies and failed miserably, so it is illogical to believe that a government operating in a mixed economy can exert greater control. It is impossible to legislate economic stability or prosperity.

With this in mind, individual citizens must carefully observe the ways in which governments will attempt to calm the current financial turmoil. The combination of financial distress and a new administration have spawned all sorts of rumors: minor changes to retirement plan distributions, higher estate tax levels, government-managed retirement accounts, mortgage relief programs for foreclosed homeowners, etc. Any number of government mandated changes could have significant impact on your financial condition, so it is essential that you pay attention and adjust if necessary.

But paying attention to government involvement in your personal financial affairs is only half the story. You must also consider what’s happening in the marketplace. An exquisitely crafted estate document or a stretch-IRA strategy isn’t worth much if there’s nothing available to spend or pass on because you have made poor decisions about where to save and invest.

From Knowledge to Action

If you’ve read this article carefully, several relevant questions should be bouncing around in your head. Questions like:

* How much of my financial life is subject to uncertainty?

* Should I attempt to replace those uncertainties with knowable risks?

* Am I prepared for quick changes in my financial world? Do I have a plan for protecting myself against sudden change or seizing sudden opportunities?

* At a personal level, what is the impact of government involvement on my financial decisions? Are my financial decisions based on artificial government factors (like tax deductions) or is there a good economic reason as well?

Looking for some answers? Maybe it’s time to review these ideas with us. And, considering how quickly things can change, the sooner the better!

To your prosperity!

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Ever wonder what it means to “live” your life insurance?

December 29, 2008 by thelyonsden

It means accelerating your prosperity by tapping into the perfect “sleep at night” account that holds your money, while it grows tax-free.

To help you understand how to do this, P4P began offering an eBook, Live Your Life Insurance, a few months ago.

Live Your Life Insurance eBookA number of you have told us that reading this information has given you renewed confidence in your prosperity acceleration options, especially given current market conditions.

Consider this:
What price can you put on learning how to:

  • Finance vacations in a way that keeps your money at work?
  • Make money like the banks make money?
  • Earn interest like the car-finance companies?
  • Build a small business that acts big?

They’ve been offering the instantly downloadable version of Live Your Life Insurance at the introductory price of $10.95.

But on January 2, 2009, the introductory period ends and the regular price will be $19.95.

Are you ready to tap into a resource that’s been around for over two centuries, but hidden by traditional financial institutions?

If so, be sure to order your copy of Live Your Life Insurance before the price goes up on January 2, 2008.

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Rates are LOW let’s GO!

December 22, 2008 by thelyonsden

If you are one of the few that has equity left, that can show income, and has a decent credit score then RIGHT now is a great time to contact us to refinance or purchase in the 4%-5% range!

If you are looking to buy a new home…you can have your cake and eat it too. Historically when property values rise rates lower and when property values decrease rates increase.

Now you have low values and low rates!

-Bill Lyons LEI Financial

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40 Inspiration Speeches in 2 Minutes

December 18, 2008 by thelyonsden

Posted in Business, Fun/Personal | Leave a Comment »

Art Lessons

October 26, 2008 by thelyonsden

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Prosperity on Purpose Newsletter

October 2008
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This month’s Prosperity On Purpose presents a fictitious story about John, a novice art investor, as he makes erroneous assumptions about the value of his investments.

As he experiences emotional highs and lows along with his misguided valuation of his art collection, his plight teaches us three main lessons about real dollar value, wishful thinking about investment values ‘always’ increasing, and asset stability.

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Art Lessons

LISTEN: Art Lessons [mp3 audio] (11:18)

READ: 1,766 words (Just over 7 minutes to read)

Here’s a story with a lesson:
On a trip to Europe, John bought a painting. He really didn’t know much about art, but he shelled out $25,000 because one of his trusted friends told him it was a good buy. “Hold on to it for 10 years or so, and it will probably triple in value,” the friend said.
It seemed like the friend was right. A few years later, John started seeing reports of similar paintings selling for $50,000 or $60,000. Out of curiosity, John had an art gallery owner appraise his painting. The appraiser gave an estimated value of $65,000. “Imagine that,” said John, “I’ve got $65,000 hanging on my wall. That’s pretty cool.”
As John considered the $65,000 hanging on the wall, another thought occurred to him: Why not buy a few more paintings? After all, he’d made a nice profit when he didn’t know a thing about art. Now that he was starting to understand the market, he’d probably do even better. Over the next few years, John dipped into his savings and bought a few more paintings.
Pretty soon John’s home had become a small art gallery. Not that he was bragging, but his art collection was valued at over a million dollars! “Wow. This really changes my net worth and gives a boost to my retirement plans,” said John. “And since the price of art just seems to go up, imagine what the values will be 10 years from now!” But while John might have paintings worth one million dollars, he didn’t have a million dollars. And there was a difference.
As his net worth continued to grow, John had an opportunity to buy a summer home for $250,000. It was a great deal, and on paper, John could afford it. The question was how to pay for it. “Hey,” thought John, “One of my paintings is worth about a little over $250,000 right now. Maybe the homeowner would consider a trade – I’ll give him my painting for the house.”
John was slightly surprised when the homeowner declined his offer. “I want my settlement in cash,” said the homeowner. “A painting hanging in my living room can’t pay for groceries or a vacation.” John really wanted the house, so he decided to sell the painting. He called the art gallery owner and made arrangements for a sale. The gallery owner agreed that John’s asking price was reasonable, and began soliciting some of his patrons.
A month went by, and the painting remained unsold. In fact, John didn’t receive a single offer. “What’s the story?” John asked the gallery owner. “Why isn’t the painting selling? Is it overpriced?”
“The price isn’t the problem,” said the gallery owner. “I’ve had several people say the price was fair. It’s just that they weren’t interested in buying right now. You have to remember, buyers of high-end art represent a very small percentage of the populace. Just because something is worth the price doesn’t mean there’s a buyer that will pay it.”
John considered his options. Even if he cut the price, there was no guarantee he would find a buyer. So if the painting was really worth $250,000, he would be better off waiting until he found a buyer willing to pay it. And since good art just seemed to keep increasing in value, he might as well hold the painting. He told the gallery owner to continue listing the painting, but stay firm about the price. John also told the owner of the summer home that he couldn’t meet the cash terms.
And then something completely unexpected happened. The painting he was trying to sell was found to be a forgery. It still looked nice hanging on his wall, but the painting was worthless as an investment. John was stunned and frustrated. He’d paid quite a bit for that painting. Not that he wanted to pass off the forgery on anyone else, but he couldn’t help thinking he would have been better off accepting any offer in the past year instead of deciding to keep the painting.
Disillusioned, John decided he was done with art as an investment. He contacted the gallery owner and arranged to auction his entire collection. Unfortunately, the general economy was in the tank; housing values were down, the sub-prime mortgage mess had squeezed the financial markets, and gas prices were up. The gallery owner called the night before the auction to say there simply wasn’t enough interest to justify holding the auction.
John faced a sobering reality: For all the money and time he’d invested, all he had to show for it was some canvasses on his walls.

Lesson 1: Dollar value is not the same as money.

In any society, money is a commodity or token that serves as a medium of exchange. This could be anything from shells and beads to coins or cattle. While there are many items or commodities that can serve as money, the best kind of money is something that everyone will accept in exchange for the things they have to sell.
The official “money” that everyone accepts in the United States is Federal Reserve Notes, denominated in dollars. And while there are many assets that can be valued in terms of dollars, very few of those items can serve as money. A single share of stock may have a current value of $10/share, but you can’t pay for lunch at a fast food restaurant with a stock certificate, and a bank isn’t going to allow you to make your monthly mortgage payment in baseball cards or bottles of wine. Most of the time, transactions will require the purchaser to pay in dollars.
If you look behind the curtain of the art analogy, you can make an application to the stocks, real estate and other financial assets. On paper, the dollar values are there. But it’s only when the assets are turned to money that you can determine their real value.
This distinction between dollar value and money is receiving increasing attention as a critical issue in individual financial programs. It’s not enough to accumulate an impressive portfolio; there must also be the assurance that those assets can deliver a consistent source of money when needed.

Lesson 2: If something can’t go on forever, it’ll stop.

The statement, “If something can’t go on forever, it will stop” is known as “Herbert Stein’s Law.” (Stein was an economics professor, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the 1970s under presidents Nixon and Ford.) His statement is often rephrased as: “Trends that can’t continue, won’t.”
At various times, some financial commentators observed a trend, then decided it would continue uninterrupted into the future. There was a certainty about their opinion, as if the outcome, while not guaranteed, was still a sure thing. It was the realtor who said “the residential housing market is a great investment. Homes will always go up in value.” Or the stock market analyst who said “stocks will fluctuate on a daily basis, but the general long-term trend is always up.”
This certainty provided the justification for financial experts to make financial projections about fluctuating assets:

  • Because homes would “always increase in value,” it was possible to justify making loans for 100% of the purchase price; the future appreciation would negate the risks taken by both the borrower and the lender
  • Because savvy investors had been able to deliver double-digit annual return from the stock market, it became reasonable to think it was possible to retire sooner and receive more income; the inevitable upward trend would make any concerns about stability irrelevant.

But as certain as the experts might have been, there were never any guarantees. The trends in real estate and the stock market were influenced by other variables – interest rates, baby boomer demographics, tax laws, etc. When those variables changed, the trend could not continue. The result of ignoring Stein’s Law: Often a bad case of SWILS – Sudden Wealth Loss Syndrome, a term coined in a March 18, 2008 Wall Street Journal article. This isn’t just a “bad year” – it’s a wipeout; so we have to watch our thinking!

Lesson 3: Asset stability is important.

For perhaps the past two decades, “safe” in the financial world has often been associated with “boring” and “stupid.” The thinking was “Why settle for a 5% annual return when there’s an opportunity to earn 15%?” But in light of the recent financial turmoil, the stability that is a primary feature of safe financial instruments has taken on a new luster.
When the fluctuations are minor and you don’t need the money, it’s psychologically and mathematically possible to ride out the downturn. But when the losses are huge and you need the money, it’s a different story.
The ultimate objective of any investment decision is to acquire more money. Nobody buys shares of stock so they can hang the certificates on their wall. They don’t invest in real estate because they want their mail delivered to a different address. The end result of all investment is to have more money – the kind you can spend, not the dollar values that add to your net worth.
Some asset classes are well-suited to delivering money in a reliable fashion. Their dollar values are fixed, and they can be quickly converted to Federal Reserve Notes, the kind of money that’s accepted everywhere.
The knee-jerk reaction to recent events in the financial markets might be to swear off all investment opportunities and keep your remaining money in a safe at home. That’s probably an overreaction. But because of Lessons 1 and 2, it’s important to understand the place asset stability has in your personal financial program. If the ultimate goal of any financial program is to deliver money, there must be a consideration of stable, liquid financial assets. Otherwise, you run the risk of acquiring a lot of financial “art” that might look impressive on a balance sheet, but in the end, isn’t worth what you paid for it.

CONSIDERING THE EVENTS OF THE PAST MONTH, DOES YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION NEED A BETTER PERSPECTIVE ON MONEY vs. DOLLAR VALUES? If it does, let us help.

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To your prosperity!

Kim/Todd/Ron/Theresa/Jill/Jessica
Partners for Prosperity, Inc.
(877) 889-3981

Thanks guys! Another great newsletter for all of America’s financial needs!

Bill Lyons, LEI Financial

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MTL announcement and NY AIG Press release

October 10, 2008 by thelyonsden

We have had an opportunity to talk to most clients about the financial pressures that have developed lately. I hope this note helps you sleep better at night knowing that your insurance investment is safe and secure.

Here is an announcement from MTL insurance company addressing the current financial climate.

A Press Release distributed by the New York Department of Insurance about the AIG situation mentions some very important points about the safety of the regulated insurance industry.  Unlike the esoteric unregulated banking industry, Insurance companies have been held to a higher standard of accounting principles by the government and their own constituents in the insurance industry.

Please keep in mind that every topic below can be a longer conversation if you wish

Concerns you should have about where your money is safe, liquid, growing (tax Free):

Where is it safer?  Bank?  Stocks & Mutual funds?  Bonds?  Buried in home equity?  IRA or 401K or any government sponsored plan? Insurance?

Bank:  Safe, yes (up to $250K in some cases now) ; Liquid , yes  ;  growth very little and not tax fee

Stocks & Mutual Funds: Safe, no; Liquid, no;  growth lots of ups and downs over the years, not tax free,  maybe get average of 9% before taxes

Bonds: Safe (somewhat); Liquid , no; growth moderate and sometimes tax free

Buried in home equity: Safe, no; liquid, no; growth, no  (home may go back up in value but the actual equity has no growth while trapped in home on paper)

IRA or 401K or most government sponsored plans: safe, usually people chose mutual funds- so No;  liquid, no; growth – most of it will be owed in taxes. 

All of the above will be examples of your dollars only being used in one place for one thing at a time.   The way to move ahead is to have your dollar working for you in many ways at one time.  A system to do this; is what you have set up in your permanent whole life insurance policy. 

Whole life Insurance placed with a Mutual type company (no stock holders):  Safe, Yes; liquid, Yes ; growth, Yes and tax free

* Troubles in the Finacial market and what type of companies have a track record of surviving extreme pressures in the market. 

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Banks:  there are commercial banks (such as Lehman Brothers) and FHA programs that do the majority of their business with other corporations. There are also banks that do most of their business with individual people like you and me (the Bank of America type).

Many of the Banks that are in trouble are so because they have too many investments in low quality mortgage backed securities that aren’t worth what they paid for them.

AIG or American International Group is basically having their trouble because of Mortgage backed securities too.  AIG has a division that in a complicated way insures the investments in Mortgage backed securities and also owns a bunch of them as payment for their insurance to other banks that issued them.  We know the securities aren’t worth anything any more.  This is AIG’s problem now.  AIG does, on the other hand, have extremely healthy insurance companies that will be restructured or sold off to other companies. 

Mutual Trust Life Insurance Company, like many other Life Insurance Companies has been doing good business for over 100 years.  Not many other industries can make the same statement.  MTL has been through the Recessions and the Great Depression along with the World Wars.  It makes sense to keep your money with the proven company/industry.

*   Some important points of Whole Life insurance:

Guaranteed Death Benefit. (But that is really not that important.) What should determine that is how much cash you want to stuff it with? Warren Buffett has the most life insurance on the planet. Once he maxed out the amount he could get on himself ; aka max human life value (MHLV) he started getting policies on everyone around him that he could establish an insurable interest on. He is the owner and beneficiary still just not the insured.

In the last 100yrs not more than a couple life insurance companies have failed yet 100s of banks have. He would rather put his money here than a bank backed by the FDIC (Except Wells Fargo of course)
-Guaranteed level premium for life of policy. (Perfect hedge against inflation)
-Guaranteed cash value base
-Judgment and creditor proof
-Virtual will and trust by designating beneficiary.

-Virtual medical insurance (Accelerated Death Benefit; Meaning you can access DB now for major medical Expenses if needed)

-Virtual disability insurance (Pays for policy if you were to become disabled)
-Tax free growth and income

-Non-taxable dividends (return of premium)
-Velocity (liquidity, use and control) move the money by putting your dollars THROUGH the policy NOT TO it. (You literally can borrow the cash from it and it acts as if the money is still in there growing)
-Collateral (you can assign policy and use as collateral short term and long term)

Bottom-line one dollar can do 12 plus jobs by using the policy as a pass-through vehicle. Rule of thumb is you can front load it by 2.5 to 3x the annual premium. Anything above that the gov’t will turn into a modified endowment contract (MEC) and then it become taxable. The key is to stuff it right below the MEC threshold. It’s not going to get you 12 percent returns but it can be used as a safe, secure facility

Again take a look at the attached AIG Press Release from the NY State Insurance commission.  It outlines how secure and safe insurance companies really are…

(Thank you George Smith for contributing part of this article)

 

 

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All Is Well

October 9, 2008 by thelyonsden

Here is a bit more for you from P4P…

LISTEN: All Is Well [mp3-audio]

(6:43)

READ:
(440 words; just under 2 minutes to read)

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As news and newspapers continue to focus on all the bank failures and the subprime crisis, now, what are even being called “insurance company failures,” we want to let you know that all is well.  And the concern that you’re naturally are going to have about the financial safety and security of your money is valid, so we want to make sure that we’re addressing it and making sure that your thinking is where it needs to be.
 
You’ll recall that our very first Principle of Prosperity™ is about your thinking and to make sure that you’re not falling prey to all of the press and what is going on in the financial markets, because your thinking has a big part to do that. 
 
Interestingly enough, even Susie Orman is now recommending whole life insurance.  As shocked as we were to see it – and of course she has it with a caveat, saying “I don’t usually recommend whole life insurance” – she will even admits that it is now a very appropriate place to store cash and have the safety and security that one would be seeking.  And she actually recommended that someone purchase it in a Costco article, of all places, for a particular situation where they were going to desire that the death benefit be sure to be paid. 
 
So the insurance companies that we represent are solid, ‘been around forever’ insurance companies.  They’re not large conglomerates like AIG. AIG had an insurance company affiliated with them, but it wasn’t the bulk of their investments, and it was not the bulk of their problems.  AIG’s insurance company would have done just fine have it been left alone, but it got sucked in, with all the problems that AIG was having – and those were primarily by investing in the subprime environment with mortgages.  The insurance companies that our clients have have a very, very small percentage, if any at all, of their money invested in subprime environments. 

So you can rest assured that the money that you have and the cash value of your life insurance is safe.  The death benefits that you expect to be paid many, many, many years from now will be paid. And if this is an area of concern for you, please get a hold of us – shoot us an e-mail, or give us a call – and we’ll be happy to go over them with you, in particular, your specific company and exactly what’s going on. We look forward to continue to help you with your thinking to get us all past the challenges that are being expressed today in the press.

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A Stable Financial Shelter for Tough Times

October 8, 2008 by thelyonsden

Kim Butler and here team have done it again in September with an awesome newsletter!

This is a must read or listen…

LISTEN: Financial Shelter [mp3 audio] (6:43)

READ:
(1,003 words; just over 5 minutes to read)

A small article on an inside page of the February 26, 2008 Wall Street Journal reads “FDIC Readies for a Rise in Bank Failures.” Hmm. Looks like the FDIC knew what was coming. Here’s the lead from a Sunday, July 13, 2008 NPR report:

Federal regulators seized IndyMac Bank Friday, one of the nation’s largest lenders, because of questions about its viability. The bank is now being run by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The bank is the largest mortgage lender to fail during the housing crisis and is one of the biggest banks to collapse in U.S. history. John Reich, director of the Federal Office of Thrift Supervision, said Friday that IndyMac “failed due to a liquidity crisis,” that is, it ran out of money. The OTS said it transferred IndyMac’s operations to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. because it did not think IndyMac could meet its depositors’ demands.

The purpose of the FDIC is to insure the savings of depositors and the agency’s actions were typical for such an intervention: The government stepped in on Friday, and by Monday, the bank’s customers were being served, ATMs were working, and debit cards and checks were honored. But regulators also acknowledge that more banks are likely to fail.
 
As the housing crisis unwinds, it’s unnerving to think that even your savings might not be safe. But despite the trouble plaguing many financial institutions, guess which sector appears to be holding steady? Well-managed, mutual life insurance companies.
 
A report on the “Townsend 100″ (one hundred life insurance companies, comprising 85% of the industry) published in the July 2008 National Underwriter, showed that even in the tough economic environment of the past several years, the companies showed a record $30.4 billion in operating earnings in 2007, and a surplus gain of 6.4% over the previous year, the highest percentage increase since 2004.

As a specific example of financial strength in the midst of widespread downgrades for financial institutions, on July 18, 2008 Standard & Poor’s announced it had raised credit and financial strength ratings of the Guardian Life Insurance Company of America from AA to AA+. S&P cited a “very strong capital adequacy and liquidity, a stable earnings profile” as reason for the upgrade, and added there was “limited speculative-grade credit risk and no exposure to subprime mortgages.”
 
It’s no surprise that life insurance companies remain solid. No financial institution – bank, brokerage house, mortgage lender, insurance company – is free from the possibility of failure. But there are several characteristics of life insurance companies that tend to make them more capable of surviving financial distress.
 
Among the most prominent:

  • Life insurance companies cannot practice fractional banking, i.e., they cannot lend more than they have in deposits. In addition, they must keep sufficient reserves to meet claims. These constraints promote conservative and prudent use of the premiums they collect.
  • Their primary business purpose – providing monetary benefits on the death of an insured individual – is supported by extensive mathematical research. Unlike other types of insurance where coverage and costs may be manipulated through definitions of what is covered or deductibles and waiting periods, life insurance is based solely on whether one is alive or dead. This makes for stable pricing, and a very low incidence of insurance fraud.
  • The mutual company model is cost-efficient. Mutual insurance companies, as opposed to stock companies, are owned by the policyholders and rely on premiums for capital to support the company, with any excess money returned as dividends to the policyholders. John Bogle, the pioneer of the Vanguard mutual funds, acknowledged that he built his company on the concept of a mutual life insurance company because it was a “structure designed to put the client in the driver’s seat. And that structure must lead to a strategy that is founded on delivering services at the lowest reasonable cost.”

In his 2006 book Money, Bank Credit, & Economic Cycles, Spanish economist Jesús Huerta de Soto provides the following assessment of life insurance companies relative to banks:

The institution of life insurance has gradually and spontaneously taken shape in the market over the last two hundred years. It is based on a series of technical, actuarial, financial and juridical principles of business behavior which have enabled it to perform its mission perfectly and survive economic crises and recessions which other institutions, especially banking, have been unable to overcome. Therefore the high “financial death rate” of banks, which systematically suspend payments and fail without the support of the central bank, has historically contrasted with the health and technical solvency of life insurance companies. (In the last two hundred years, a negligible number of life insurance companies have disappeared due to financial difficulties.)

 
Occasionally, some financial commentator will criticize life insurance as a “poor investment,” comparing it to the historical return performance of some stock, index or other financial instrument. But this criticism overlooks some of the other, less tangible aspects of owning cash value life insurance. One of those intangibles is the designed financial stability that has allowed life insurance companies to remain solid in times of economic turmoil.
 
We know you’re clear on some of the aspects of life insurance, and how to use, especially the cash value while you’re living. But one of the things that sometimes we forget is how to use the death benefit while you’re living.

So, if you’re not clear on this and you need a reminder, check out: Live Your Life Insurance – The eBook for an e-booklet on using your death benefit while you’re living.
 
We also welcome any questions in this area to continue to fuel your growth of knowledge and your use of this financial tool.
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September 29th 2008 Bailout

September 29, 2008 by thelyonsden

I am sure some astrologer will find some correlation between October 29th, 1929 and September 29th, 2008.

Although the DOW only dove 777 points -6.98% compared to the -12% in 1929 this is still horrifyingly close. NasDaq fell -9.14% and the S&P 500 fell -8.79% (so much for those that were selling the IULs)

Leadcritic has a good article that came out this morning on their blog however the best bailout article I have seen yet is on the Los Angeles Times website. Check out the graphic of the comparision with other federal programs:

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